Production of oil peaked in 2008 at 81.73 million barrels / day according to The Oil Drum. The world credit crunch / economic recession has now lead to a decline in demand and hence production. Of course when the economic climate improves there will be increased demand for liquid oil there may be second larger peak in production from oilfields with enough capacity, but it is not thought likely.
The Oil Drum and even the Financial Times have analysis of what it means socially, politically and economically, I’ll leave that discussion to them. Instead I’ll look at some of the implications for travel.
World liquid oil production from major fields
It will mean increasing transport costs where liquid oil is used as the main fuel source. Car owners will feel the strain immediately. Airlines will suffer again and fuel surcharges / seat prices will rise and more will be forced into administration. shipping, buses, taxis and diesel trains will have to increase prices. Those doubling of air passenger numbers by 2030, spouted by the airlines, airports and governments look a little dubious in light of this. Why build second or third runways or double the airline fleet?
Of course a shortage of cheap oil will severely dent the chances of a quick recovery from the present recession. Meaning the travel industry will suffer from lost revenues and consumers will struggle to afford that travel break. It will mean less long haul, short breaks based around flights and more long term travel opportunities, perhaps taking a job swap in a different part of the world and staying some time. Perhaps you have some ideas for travel in a future without cheap oil?
It is why consumers will have to consider carefully their travel plan. Not only does fossil fuel consumption contribute to Global Climate Change, but it brings us all closer to a Post Peak Oil world. A world where your grandchildren are unlikely to fly in a jet aircraft, where food is scarcer, a world with more wars over oil, water and food.
