Dr Birol of the International Energy Agency (IEA) now admits that we have passed peak conventional crude oil. After saying for years, that we are nowhere near peak oil, he now says that the IEA thinks that conventional crude peaked five years ago. Dr Birol says that governments should have been planning for this ten years ago. What have they been doing?
In the UK, predicting a doubling of air passengers by 2030 and planning for a third runway for Heathrow and a second runway for Stansted. The cancelling of plans for the Heathrow third runway by the new government seems obvious in light of the predicted oil supply in 2030. Yet, I still see plans being wheeled out for concepts such as the Aerotropolis.

The travel industry will increase its fuel surcharges, but the problem extends to all of the products that rely on cheap oil but the real hard hitter will be fertilisers and food. All of these will rise in price. With the scarcity of supply driving prices up, the price of oil is hardly likely to drop unless the recession bites again. Take a look at this video where a Dr Birol is interviewed and even Richard Branson is shown discussing an impending oil crunch.

Do you think we will still be able to fly around the world for less than £1000 / $1500, in five years time?

Production of oil peaked in 2008 at 81.73 million barrels / day according to The Oil Drum.  The world credit crunch / economic recession has now lead to a decline in demand and hence production. Of course when the economic climate improves there will be increased demand for liquid oil there may be second larger peak in production from oilfields with enough capacity, but it is not thought likely.

The Oil Drum and even the Financial Times have analysis of what it means socially, politically and economically, I’ll leave that discussion to them. Instead I’ll look at some of the implications for travel.

World liquid oil production from major fields

It will mean increasing transport costs where liquid oil is used as the main fuel source.  Car owners will feel the strain immediately. Airlines will suffer again and fuel surcharges / seat prices will rise and more will be forced into administration. shipping, buses, taxis and diesel trains will have to increase prices. Those doubling of air passenger numbers by 2030, spouted by the airlines, airports and governments look a little dubious in light of this. Why build second or third runways or double the airline fleet?

Of course a shortage of cheap oil will severely dent the chances of a quick recovery from the present recession.  Meaning the travel industry will suffer from lost revenues and consumers will struggle to afford that travel break.  It will mean less long haul, short breaks based around flights and more long term travel opportunities, perhaps taking a job swap in a different part of the world and staying some time.  Perhaps you have some ideas for travel in a future without cheap oil?

It is why consumers will have to consider carefully their travel plan. Not only does fossil fuel consumption contribute to Global Climate Change, but it brings us all closer to a Post Peak Oil world.  A world where your grandchildren are unlikely to fly in a jet aircraft, where food is scarcer, a world with more wars over oil, water and food.